Dr. Nabil Hawi
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Yemen and Libya, transitional period filled with risks
Writes/ Dr. Nabil Hawi
Published Since: One Year and Month and Tow Days
Sunday 15 April 2012 04:58 pm



The Arab spring trip won't come easily to safety . The countries where the revolution achieved total or partial victory are still suffering a flood of issues from the heavy past's heritage, the new ones created by disputes within the revolutionary forces or due to the flood of the popular demands flowing on those responsible for the transitional period.
In Yemen it is notable that Sana'a international airport came into the dispute's area for the first time. It was closed in the face of air traffic because of the transitional President Hadi's decisions, which dismissed some senior military leaders, unit's commanders as well as the dismissal of three governors.
It is queer that there is also a probable airport crisis in Libya, in western Tripoli, where there is a huge group of revolutionaries, against Gadafi regime still publicly or secretly stationed near the international airport and trying to impose their terms regarding the new national army . weeks ago the airport briefly stopped.
In Sana'a the airport closure came following threats launched by forces loyal to Mohammed Saleh al-Ahmar, Commander of the Air forces and the step brother of the former, not fully, deposed Ali Abdullah Saleh.
General Tareq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, Commander of the Presidential Guard was also dismissed.
General Mohammed refused dismissal unless many others of the ministry's officials are dismissed as well, including the Minister of Defense Mohammed Nasser Ahmed and Chief of staff Ali al-Ashwal. President Saleh announced months ago that the GCC initiative stipulates the dismissal of a number of the senior leaders who are loyal to the revolutionaries, the defecting leaders and to deport them outside the country.


Family mines are the tumble blocks

Al-Gabas was the first journal to point out to the "mines", realized in Saleh's sons, brothers and relatives, who are in charge of the military, security, administrative and economic positions. The journal had published the names of dozens of them, saying that President Hadi needs extraordinary Yemeni, Gulf and international support to get rid of the heavy heritage in order to implement the remaining parts of the GCC initiative.
Now the President and the Supreme Military Committee are facing huge influential positions. It is notable that General Mohammed Saleh al-Ahmar was not fully dismissed but assigned with other military missions.

High jacked plane

The disruption, in reality coincides with threats to the planes and perhaps to the ships and land movements, though the Yemenis have a historical proverb saying that " we will reach Sana'a by all means, despite the long travel."
The transitional authority may change into a high jacked plane unless all the sincere ones play their role in supporting the hard task of the structure process, until holding the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014.

Leader of the Jamihira
The Libyans were famous for their ability to endure difficulties, though the revolution against the regime of Gadafi erupted suddenly following the Tunisian revolution, in a country where the "leader of the Jamihria" had cancelled all institutions, organizations, political parties and the civil societies, at a time where in Yemen there were dozens of organizations, partisan and tribal groups even militias coexisting with Saleh's regime .
 They even used to contradict with him, where he  used to instigate conflicts among them, until the tribal split aggravated within the army under the leadership of one of the leaders of the biggest tribes "Hashid"  which Saleh belongs to one of its tributaries. This is in addition to the accumulating problems with the southern separatists and other forces, the Houthis in the north as well as other fanatical Sunni forces.
In Libya there were, and still, tribal forces, where some of them have provided light services to Gadafi for controlling some border areas, or to prevent any rebellion against the " revolutionary committees", while grudges prevailed against other tribes, as the regime used to deal with force, bribe and drawing wedges at other times.

Militias and the national army

Now the transitional Libya has collided with flaring up demands, some of them are regional (separatist) and others are ethnical and tribal.
Some experts see them as a result of the heritage of the tyrannical regime, however the mobile violence is also linked to the sudden eruption of violence which prevailed after the fall of Gadafi. Added to this is the failure to collect the weapons or to integrate the local militias into the national army. Reconciliation requires substantive development to the performance of the Transitional Council, so as to prevent escalation of the regional and tribal conflicts.

Garbage bags

The most strange observation by al-Sharq al-Awsat correspondent is a dispute over garbage bags in Sabha, in southern Libya, which led to fierce clashes between Arab and other tribes of non-Arabic origin, called al-Tabo which resulted in hundreds of casualties.
Zawara clashes had broken out when former rebels from Zawara had been arrested while they were passing al-Jumil city. After the intervention of the Transitional Council a deal was reached and they were released, however former rebels from Zawara, escalated the situation with heavy and medium weapons.
Other reports by the BBC and CNN had attributed the clashed partly to accumulating ethnic factors. They are also attributed to the ambitions of some local sides to dominate the oil sources. Some accused the current transitional council of not returning to the 1961 constitution which used to respect all the people's components from Arabs, Amaziq and others.

Libyan unity and Yemeni unity

The insistence of Barqa region in the east on self-government is a new challenge to the fragile unity of Libya , under pressure to turn the country into a federal state.
In Yemen the overlap between unity and separation is a part of a new old conflict. President Saleh tried to persuade the international community that Yemen will disintegrate in case he departs, where terrorism threatens of swallowing the surrounding gulf and Arab region. He tried to portray even the moderate opposition (who participate now in the Reconciliation Government) as terrorists and that they are a religious and doctrine echo to the separatists.
President Hadi and the transitional government have historical tasks before them so as to save the country from Saleh's heritage, which is consolidated by the insistence of the latter not to depart, whereas the heritage of Gadafi became the heritage of a ruler who is now in the grave.


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