Syrian plans change every day, because the revolution is facing the state with firm determination and do not care to sacrifice. The splits, despite their insignificance upsets the government which benefits from the differences among the opposition. The main cities began to move and the number of the dead increases. The Arab League and Anan are hopeless of any diplomatic solution, while the hidden dispute in the Security Council continues, and everyone has his own agenda in the region.
The latest developments are the explosions in sensitive states' facilities over which views differed. While the opposition and the free army deny responsibilities, they accuse the regime of fabricating it to make the international opinion believe that it is fighting terrorism, and that its imprints are like those of al-Qaeda in Iraq and Yemen. There is a possibility that its inability to deny what is happening as being a massacre against its people, forces it to fabricate actions that create an impression that they are forced to take measures against situations that they are forcibly dragged into them.
The government is skilled in lies, maneuvering and playing on ropes and contrasts, with proof initiating from the evidence of their deceiving the Arab league at their early efforts and made them believe their positions, then they started explaining the reasons and attitudes that face the regime. Anan came with a planned project, but he is ignorant of the nature of the regime which speaks of something and then does the opposite, including the killing.
The regime remained mysterious in all its dealings, when it shows its enmity to Israel, embracing of Hamas, shipping al-Qaeda members to Iraq and staying away from blame for their actions. It also allowed the American ambassador to wander freely in the Syrian cities at the beginning of the crisis. It gives an impression that it is a regime based on the mafia system, in its secret dealings and Machiavellian its policy. Evidences show that the Assad regime was hostile with the Iraqi government, and after the revolution their sectarian interests met. Iraq supplied Syria with billions and became a bridge for the military support coming from Iran.
This change in tactics came for fear of both parties from change of the Syrian regime.
The leaking secrets of Asad and his wife showed how the battles are managed by secret men and women and how Iranian relations became overlapping into everything regarding the Syrian regime, showing that this family which shows asceticism is living in luxury. However the issue is not associated with personal concern but with the intelligence mentality that runs the people, based on the old communist dictatorship.
Changing Asaad raise controversy, between those who believe in a coup from within the regime, or through a blockade and the establishment of safe havens that enable the opposition to play a pressuring role. Others say the impossibility of a military intervention due to justifications concerning the major powers, including risks of adventures and the objection of Russia and China. Others see that the weakening Iran economically may weaken Syria as well. Is Israel absent in all these scenarios, with a neighbor that it fought with then it reached reconciliation with its regime in a semi ambassadors' exchange and signing pledges for reconciliation.
Israel will decide how to plan the post Asaad period, not because it has the ability to change, but because it can employ the European and American potentials for organizing the dispute in neighboring countries. The coming months will reveal the scenarios where Israel will be involved.