This is what is said for marketing the Arab League's draft for ending the Syrian violence, the ousting of Ali Abdullah Saleh and his men from power without war or the disintegration of the state. In my opinion copying the Yemeni solution to Syria, faces obstacles that make it impossible.
If it is possible to see Bashar al-Asad and his leaders leaving Damascus, and be replaced by the ones demanded by Syrians, the matter will require offering Noble peace Prize, mainly to sheikh Hamad Bin Jasim , the Qatari Prime Minister of course and at a less level to Nabil al-Arabi, the General Secretary of the Arab League. However it is feared that the matter may end up into an Oscar prize to be won by Al-Saad in the part of the best actor.
The conditions are different between Saleh regime's in Yemen and Assad in Syria, which this column doesn't allow elaborating on them. However it could be said that there are forces which were able to force the head of the regime in Yemen to step down. Saudi Arabia, the GCC and the USA to Yemen, are like Russia and Iran to Syria.
The first have started their real activity earlier for ousting Saleh, ten months ago, when his tribe's chiefs, Hashid together with religious Zaidi leaders, demanded his departure, in consistence with the street's desire. Two days after that, on March 22, he announced his readiness for stepping down by the end of the year, presumably as a maneuver.
In response to the external siege, he cordoned the UAE embassy in Sana'a to scare the GCC delegation, however he didn't succeed. He also tried to mobilize the people against what he called the interference of the USA, however the American Ambassador in Sana'a, continued to hold meetings at his house with opposition leaders to coordinate ending Saleh's regime.
In Syria the conditions are entirely different where Iran and Syria went on providing their ally with weapons and mercenaries, and even hampered the international efforts for alleviating the crisis. Moscow has blocked all condemnation attempts at the Security Council.
In Syria Assad is hiding behind his clan which he is ruling with an iron grip. In Yemen Saleh's tribe and his allies deserted him. He was actually ruling only Sana'a while ruling the other parts in proxy. Assad is ruling Syria through his intelligence and security systems from Babal-Hawa town at the Syrian boarders in the north up to Dara' on the Jordanian boarders in the south.
The Arab League's new plan for ending the Syrian crisis is serious, because it gives the beleaguered Syrian regime for the first time a chance for existence and to crush the revolution. Russia and Iran have proposed two months ago giving the regime an opportunity in return for involving the opposition in power and to hold elections. The proposed plan of the Arab league is based on these two points.
The Arab league adds the term of entrusting powers to the Vice President. Of course this term proves to be not accurate at the careful reading of the paper. The text says, "authorization of the President of his full powers to his first Vice President, to enable him to perform his duties in full cooperation with the Government of National Unity in the transitional period."
Al-Asad is asked to grant cooperative powers with the government. This is a simple matter that cannot be compared with the full authorization of all powers as in the Yemeni case. It is worth mentioning that Yemen Saleh was under focus where his back remained naked without support, because the GCC and the West were practically with his departure.
Asad is being supported despite the significance of his victims. Russia had sent its destroyers to Tartous harbor , and Iran has sent weapons, militias and oil. Moreover the regime has invented a political solution's drama, by creating two internal and external oppositions, for excluding the real opposition and the rebels. He allowed the counterfeited opposition to work from Damascus in an open show with few individuals who allege that they are external opposition, however the Syrians refused them.
Later we will see that the regime that assume unduly objection and criticizes the plan is dragging its feet and agree to it selecting from it what suits it.
Within three months of frivolity and liquidation of opponents, the regime will accept a joint national government, which will be similar to the observers' group which the Asad regime has rejected it and then accepted it after two months after evacuating it of its more important duties.
It imposed on the Arab league a general with notorious history of a rouge regime, that is supporting it, or the Sudan, who drafted at the end a false report, that washed the regime's blood- stained cloths.
You may ask, what is the possible way out of this difficult situation, as Sheikh Ahmed has asked in response to one of the angry journalists, " if you can remove the regime; do it."
To be continued
From the London based "Middle East."